H7N9 – if heading to significant human transmission – would have tipped already

in Flu Genetics

See the link below for full expert comment

It is possible that during replication in birds or humans, the H7N9 viruses might randomly acquire a mutation that allows for transmission. In the right place at the right time, such a virus could spread through the human population. Alternatively, such a transmission-facilitating mutation might interfere with the overall fitness of the virus, thereby preventing it from spreading. I favor the latter hypothesis because the H7N9 viruses have been transmitting since at least February 2013; they have undergone many replication cycles without such a mutation arising. If the virus has not entered wild birds, culling poultry could eradicate it from China – assuming that it has not gone elsewhere.

via Avian influenza H7N7 virus outbreak: Lessons for H7N9.

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